Nintendo has released what financial analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, amidst ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs. This morning, the company announced its financial projections, expecting to sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million game copies during the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is set to hit the market on June 5.
Nintendo's forecast is based on the assumption that the U.S. tariff rates implemented on April 10 will remain unchanged throughout their fiscal year. However, they acknowledged that any alterations to these tariffs could impact their sales projections. "We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions," stated Nintendo.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, labeled the 15 million unit target as "conservative." In a tweet, Ahmad explained that Nintendo likely took into account the unpredictability around tariffs, pricing, and production, even with strong pre-order momentum. He further added that Nintendo might revise its forecast upwards should the tariff situation improve. "However, the main issue right now is knock-on effects that are already in motion and creating a difficult environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs," Ahmad noted.
It's noteworthy that if the Switch 2 achieves 15 million sales in its first year, it would rank among the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.
AnswerSee ResultsThe demand for the Switch 2 appears to be incredibly high. Following a delay caused by tariffs, pre-orders for the Switch 2 opened on April 24, maintaining the console's price at $449.99, and the response was as enthusiastic as anticipated. Nintendo also issued a warning to U.S. customers who pre-ordered from the My Nintendo Store, indicating that delivery on the release date is not guaranteed due to the overwhelming demand.
For more detailed information, you can refer to IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.
